The Conference Board CEI for Korea, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in April. However, there were downward revisions to the index levels in the past several months, as actual data for monthly cash earnings became available. A significant gain in total employment more than offset declines in the wholesale and retail sales component and industrial production in April. Despite this month's gain, the six-month growth in the coincident economic index has moderated to 1.6 percent (about a 3.3 percent annual rate) for the period through April, down from 2.7 percent (about a 5.5 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. At the same time, real GDP grew at an 8.8 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2010, above the 6.9 percent average annual rate of increase in the second half of last year.
The Conference Board LEI for Korea has been generally rising for more than a year now, although its six-month growth rate has moderated somewhat this year. At the same time, The Conference Board CEI for Korea has been on a slightly rising trend in recent months, after growing rapidly in 2009. Taken together, the current behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggests that the economy will continue to grow, albeit at a modest pace in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Five of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in April. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - were real exports FOB, stock prices, letter of credit arrivals, value of machinery orders, and the (inverted) yield of government public bonds. The negative contributors were private construction orders and the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments.
With the 0.2 percent increase in April, The Conference Board LEI for Korea now stands at 115.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in March and increased 0.4 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the leading economic index increased 4.7 percent, with five of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Two of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Korea increased in April. The positive contributors were total employment and monthly cash earnings. The wholesale and retail sales component and industrial production declined in April.
With the 0.5 percent increase in April, The Conference Board CEI for Korea now stands at 111.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in March and increased 1.6 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the coincident economic index increased 1.6 percent, with two of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
