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PRC Recovery to Quicken, Policy Changes Needed to Avoid Overheating
added: 2010-01-19

Growth in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is set to surge this year as the global financial crisis fades, and policymakers will need to consider tightening measures to prevent potential overheating of the economy, said a new study commissioned by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

The study, Impact and Policy Responses - People’s Republic of China (PRC), noted that the PRC had come through the crisis unscathed thanks to past structural reforms and swift policy actions, including the introduction of a massive 4 trillion renminbi fiscal stimulus package. With the global economy recovering, and indicators such as loans and private investment on the rise, growth in PRC is set to expand sharply in 2010.

However, the study also cautioned that a continuation of stimulus measures now in place would soon need to be balanced against the necessity of heading off any potential threat of an asset price bubble and inflation.

The study, prepared the Centennial Group International, is among several reports that are being discussed at a two-day regional forum, "Impact of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis", organized by ADB at its headquarters in Manila on 14 – 15 January.

“No country has responded as effectively and as resolutely to the crisis as PRC has. With the global economy recovering and with PRC's growth now surging, there may be a need for change in policy settings," said the study.

The risk for the economy from maintaining extraordinarily high level of policy stimulus however has also got to be considered, added the study.

To head off the threat of overheating, policymakers should consider macroeconomic tightening measures, such as reining in lending and raising the actual cost of funds. They should also allow the exchange rate to return to the path of gradual appreciation seen between July 2005 and mid-2008.

Further, PRC needs to continue addressing structural issues in its economy to enable it to move away from excessive dependence on investments and exports. Such adjustments will allow the economy to move up the value chain and become more resilient in the face of future global shocks, the study said.


Source: Asian Development Bank

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