The Conference Board CEI for China, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in June. Electricity production declined, but all the other coincident indicators made positive contributions to the index this month. With June’s gain, the coincident economic index increased by 7.6 percent (a 15.8 percent annual rate) in the six-month period through June 2010, up from 5.0 percent (about a 10.3 percent annual rate) in the second half of 2009. Moreover, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all components advancing in recent months.
The Conference Board LEI for China continued to increase in June. Although its six-month growth rate has picked up slightly from the second half of last year, it is considerably below the growth in the first half of 2009. At the same time, The Conference Board CEI for China has also been on an upward trend, and the strengths among its components have remained very widespread. All in all, the behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggest that China’s economic activity should continue expanding in coming months.
LEADING INDICATORS
Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for China increased in June. The positive contributors to the index – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – include the (inverted) PMI supplier delivery index, total loans issued by financial institutions, and the consumer expectations index. The 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index, the PMI new export orders index, and total floor space started declined in June.
With the increase of 0.8 percent in June, The Conference Board LEI for China now stands at 147.0 (2004=100). With revisions, this index increased 0.9 percent in May and remained unchanged in April. During the six-month span through June, The Conference Board LEI for China increased 3.7 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Four of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for China increased in June. The positive contributors to the index – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – include volume of passenger traffic, retail sales of consumer goods, value-added industrial production, and manufacturing employment. Electricity production declined in June.
With the increase of 1.0 percent in June, The Conference Board CEI for China now stands at 186.4 (2004=100). This index increased 0.9 percent in May and increased 1.4 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, The Conference Board CEI for China increased 7.6 percent, and all five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
