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China National Economy: Positive Changes Emerged in the First Quarter of 2009
added: 2009-04-16

In early 2009, all regions and departments effectively implemented the policies and measures set by the central government on further stimulating domestic demand, promoting the sound and fast growth of national economy, and responded with tenacious spirit to the impacts from the international financial crisis, the overall national economy showed positive changes with better performance than expected.

According to preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first quarter of this year was 6,574.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1 percent, which was 4.5 percentage points lower than that in the same period last year. The value added of the primary industry was 470.0 billion yuan, up by 3.5 percent; that of the secondary industry was 3,196.8 billion yuan, up by 5.3 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 2,907.7 billion yuan, up by 7.4 percent.

1. Agricultural production achieved good start with increased acreage of grain crops. The expected planting area for grain would reach 108.14 million hectares, an increase of 1.35 million hectares, which was the sixth successive year of increased output. Of this total, the planting area for summer grain was 27.16 million hectares, a year-on-year increase of 0.34 million hectares; the output of early rice was 5.86 million hectares, an increase of 0.15 million hectares; and that of autumn crops was 75.12 million hectares, a year-on-year increase of 0.86 million hectares. At present, the growth of crop seedlings of winter wheat was good. The proportion of first and second grade seedlings accounted for 82.5 percent of the total. In the first quarter of this year, the total output of pork, beef and mutton reached 16.15 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 6.0 percent.

2. Industrial production increased steadily with decreased profits made by enterprises. In the first quarter of this year, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size was up 5.1 percent year-on-year, or 11.3 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter of 2008, but March witnessed increased growth with 8.3 percent compared with 3.8 percent in the first two months of this year. Analysis on different types of enterprises showed that the value added growth of the state-owned and state holding enterprises went up by 0.1 percent; collective enterprises, 3.5 percent; share-holding enterprises, 7.7 percent; however, value added for enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan provinces was down by 1.4 percent. The year-on-year growth of heavy industry was 4.5 percent, and 6.8 percent for the light industry. Among the 39 industrial divisions, 33 divisions registered year-on-year growth while the other 6 divisions undergone decline. In terms of different areas, the growth in eastern, central and western areas was 3.7 percent, 5.2 percent and 11.8 percent respectively. The production and market of industrial products went on well. In the first quarter of this year, the sales ratio of industrial products was 97.07 percent.

In the first two months of this year, the profits made by industrial enterprises above designated size stood at 219.1 billion yuan, down by 37.3 percent year-on-year. Among the 39 industrial divisions, 23 divisions registered year-on-year decrease with profits, and another 4 divisions suffered from loses. However, some divisions maintained growth or reversed from loss to profit. The growth went up 15.6 for textiles and clothing, 24.7 for furniture manufacturing, and the petroleum processing and coking industry gained 11.7 billion yuan of profits whereas they suffered 19.4 billion yuan of loses in the previous year.

3. Investment in fixed assets accelerated with improved investment structure. In the first quarter of this year, the investment in fixed assets of the country was 2,812.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 28.8 percent, or a rise of 4.2 percentage points as compared with the growth in the same period last year. The investment in urban areas reached 2,356.2 billion yuan, up by 28.6 percent (up by 30.3 percent in March), or 2.7 percentage points higher while that in rural areas was 456.7 billion yuan, up by 29.4 percent, or a rise of 11.1 percentage points. Of the total investment in fixed assets in urban areas, that in the primary industry, the secondary industry and the tertiary industry in urban areas went up by 85.0 percent, 26.8 percent and 29.1 percent respectively, which showed that the growth in the primary and tertiary industries were higher than that in the secondary industry. The investment in eastern, central and western areas grew by 19.8 percent, 34.3 percent and 46.1 percent respectively. The growth of investment in central and western regions was apparently faster than that in eastern region.

4. Sales on domestic markets enjoyed steady and fast growth and the sales at or below county level were faster than that in urban areas. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 2,939.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year rise of 15.0 percent (up by 14.7 percent in March), and the real growth was 15.9 percent after deducting the price factors, which was 3.6 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year and 1.1 percentage points higher that that in the whole previous year. The retail sales in cities reached 1,983.4 billion yuan, up by 14.1 percent, and the retail sales at and below county level stood at 956.4 billion yuan, up by 17.0 percent. Among the sales by wholesale and retail businesses above designated size, the sales of furniture went up by 24.1 percent, that of construction and decoration materials 20.2 percent and that of vehicles 11.1 percent.

5. The year-on-year change of consumer prices went down, and the month-on-month change of producers’ prices for manufactured goods dropped with narrowed margin. In the first quarter of this year, the consumer price index went down by 0.6 percent (down by 1.2 percent year-on-year and 0.3 month-on-month in March). The price declined by 0.9 percent in cities and that in rural areas maintained the same level over the same period last year. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food rose by 0.5 percent, prices for tobacco, liquor and articles up by 2.0 percent, household facilities, articles and maintenance services up by 2.1 percent, health care and personal articles up by 1.3 percent; prices for clothing down by 2.4 percent, transportation and communication down by 2.7 percent, recreation, education, culture articles and services down by 0.5 percent, and housing down by 2.9 percent. In the first quarter of this year, the retail prices of commodities went down by 0.8 percent year on year (down by 1.5 percent in March). The producer’s prices for manufactured goods witnessed a declined of 4.6 percent year on year, however, the decrease rate was narrowing down month by month. Of this total, the month on month change of prices went down 1.4 percent in January, 0.7 percent in February and 0.3 percent in March. The purchaser’s prices for raw materials, fuel and power down by 7.1 percent (by 8.9 percent in March). The year-on-year growth of the prices for housing went down by 1.1 percent (down by 1.3 percent in March).

6. The foreign trade dropped sharply and the foreign direct investment actually utilized decreased. The total value of imports and exports for the first quarter was US$ 428.7 billion, down by 24.9 percent year-on-year. The value of exports was US$ 245.5 billion, down by 19.7 percent, and the value of imports was US$ 183.2 billion, down 30.9 percent. The trade surplus was US$ 62.3 billion, an increase of US$ 20.9 billion over the same period last year. In the first quarter of this year, the total value of foreign direct investment actually utilized was US$ 21.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of US$ 5.6 billion.

7. New job opportunities fell down in urban areas and the urban and rural residents’ income continued to grow. In the first two months, the total newly increased employment in urban areas was 1.62 million people, a drop of 210 thousand people than that of the same period last year, fulfilling 18.0 percent of the annual target; the re-employment of the laid offs were 710 thousand people, fulfilling 14.2 percent of the annual target; and another 190 thousand people who had difficulties in finding jobs were employed, fulfilling 19.0 percent of the annual target. In the first quarter of this year, the per capita disposable income of urban population was 4,834 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 10.2 percent, or a real growth of 11.2 after deducting price factors. The per capita cash income of rural population was 1,622 yuan, up by 8.6 percent year-on-year, or 8.6 percent growth in real term.

8. The money supply and credit grew rapidly while the foreign exchange reserves increased to some extent. By the end of March, the broad money (M2) was 53.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 25.5 percent, which was 7.7 percentage points higher than that at the end of last year; the narrow money (M1) was 17.7 trillion yuan, a rise of 17.0 percent, or 8.0 percentage points higher; the cash in circulation (M0) was 3,374.6 billion yuan, up by 10.9 percent or 1.8 percentage points lower. The amount of outstanding loans of all financial institutions was 34,955.5 billion yuan, increased by 4,581.2 billion yuan over that at the beginning of this year, or a rise of 3,248.5 billion yuan as compared with the same period last year. The amount of outstanding deposits of all financial institutions was 52,261.9 billion yuan, an increase of 5,616.3 billion yuan over the beginning of the year, or 2,978.7 billion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of March, the national foreign exchange reserves reached US$ 1,953.7 billion, an increase of US$ 7.7 billion over that at the end of the previous year.

The notable problems existing in current national economic performance include: influenced by international financial crisis, the demand on export dropped sharply, which caused decline of profits made by enterprises, reduced government revenue and increased difficulties on employment, and the national economy is confronted with the pressure of slowdown. In the coming period, we should thoroughly apply the scientific approach to development, adhere to the decisions made by the central government on economic work, effectively implement the policies and measures issued, continuously improve the macro-control policies and make our efforts to realize a sound and fast growth of the national economy.


Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

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